After the day came however, Canadian-based pot stocks saw mostly negative price action.
The small sell off is due to traders locking in profits without a major catalyst in sight. It’s clear pot stocks are not going up in smoke after legalization.
Pot Stocks Not Up In Smoke After Legalization
While weed stocks will likely have a few victors who are able to provide investors with long-term growth and substantial returns on their investments, in the near-term, it looks like any upward price action will be minimal.
Investors should be ready to stick it out and see some ups and downs as the industry grabs its footing.
There are a number of key concerns for weed companies, which aren’t being discussed among bullish investors: an existing and tax-free black market, restrictive legislation keeping high-margin products of the shelves, the cottage industry of cannabis seen in legalized U.S. States, and supply shortages among others.
Many of the cannabis companies on investor’s radar today will go up in smoke as the industry settles. A clear winner, according to most analysts, is Canopy Growth Corporation.
The company is expected to have a huge market share of legal cannabis flower in Canada as the fallout from legalization kicks in.
Constellation Brands
Additionally, they have an existing relationship with alcohol manufacturer and blue-chip company Constellation Brands.
Constellation currently owns around 38 percent of the company, as well as warrants that will allow it to purchase a controlling stake in the future.
Canopy CEO Bruce Linton says that he hopes that the emerging industry grabs it’s footing and is a catalyst for innovation, comparing it to Silicon Valley in the early days of the Internet. Said Linton:
“We’re willing to make more mistakes than any other cannabis company. For a while.”
The next company that is likely to rise to the top as the industry settles is Aurora Cannabis. The grower is expected to far surpass all others in terms of supply capacity.
They are currently able to grow up to 45 thousand kilograms at the moment, and expect that number to grow by more than 300 percent before the end of the year.
The company has currently been trading on over-the-counter markets, but is expected to open on the New York Stock exchange this week.
“Our NYSE listing represents another important milestone that reflects our commitment to all stakeholders as we continue advancing domestic and international growth initiatives, which includes expanding our base of global institutional and retail investors,” said Terry Booth, CEO of Aurora in a press release.
At this point in time, most cannabis companies have a huge amount of short interest with traders waiting on each negative piece of news
That news could relate to supply issues, slumping sales as novelty decreases and the black-market becomes favorable again, and competition from small growers.
With the current amount of short interest however, any positive news for pot companies will likely work to be a major, short squeeze initiating catalyst.
Pot Stocks Not Up In Smoke After Legalization
One poy stocks catalyst that is right around the corner is the NYSE listing of Aurora Cannabis.
The new listing will likely bring a wave of retail investors who aren’t trading on the OTC markets and related stocks like Canopy will feel a surge as well, sending the shorts running.
]]>Constellation Brands Inc. has positioned itself to be a worldwide cannabis empire alongside Canopy Growth Corp. This will rocket the Canada-based pot grower to one of the leading positions atop the universal weed stage.
Leading Cannabis Stock Companies Building Weed Empire
Constellation is the beermaker of the Corona brand and is spending $5.8 billion Canadian (not quite $4 billion USD) to enhance its portion of Canopy Growth, which is a major Canadian cannabis enterprise, to 38 %. Constellation is touting the bold move as the marijuana world’s biggest investment yet.
We believe this sizable investment clearly confirms Constellation’s commitment to growing out a global cannabis platform with Canopy.
– Canaccord analyst Neil Maruoka
Constellation Stock
Constellation acquired a minority interest in Canopy last October, paying about $245 million Canadian for not quite 10% of the company.
Many analysts believed it was a strategy to balance out cannabis-cannibalizing liquor sales. As it turned out, Constellation wasn’t playing defense.
They had an offensive strategy in mind. They were throwing their weight behind a search for a lead position in weed.
As a part of this agreement, Constellation will receive 139.7 million warrants (stock options, in USA-speak) that they can exercise any time over the next 36 months. Those warrants would increase its stake in Canopy to in excess of 50 percent.
The deal provides Canopy, headquartered in Smiths Falls, Ontario with capital that could propel them into as many as thirty countries worldwide.
That would make these two combined by far the largest marijuana concern in North America, and one of the biggest worldwide. (Statistics from South America are hard to quantify accurately.)
Canopy Growth Stock
Canopy stock surged 50% to a record high on the Toronto exchange. Constellation, however, fell about 9% on the New York exchange.
That is its steepest drop in almost two years. Alcohol peer Diageo Plc also declined as a result of this recent development.
Most observers were bullish on the news. But, some analysts suggested potential investors should hold their horses when it comes to the latest news.
Looking forward, much work and change still needs to occur in order for this industry to realize its full potential.
– Cowen analyst Vivien Azer wrote in a separate note today.
Even as tens of millions of dollars of legalized pot in Canada looms on in two months, this big financial wager hinges on weed consumption gaining ground in both the U.S. and worldwide.
But, this is history without a doubt. The agricultural financial world will shift on its axis when legalization becomes a reality.
Recreational Marijuana Legal Nationwide In Canada
Canada became the first G-7 nation to allow the unhinged recreational use of marijuana. In this country, only seven states as yet permit recreational pot sales.
The drug remains outlawed in the United States at the federal level.
What will this do to the price and availability of weed in the United States? What, in particular, does it mean for states that border Canada?
Are a couple of Canadian acres planted with weed the route to getting rich?
]]>Opinions on the economics of legalizing marijuana are mixed. But anyone who has an opinion on the issue says that at the least the U.S. tax deficit could be paid off by taxing pot. The open discussion revolving marijuana legalization is a multifaceted issue.
Marijuana Legalization – Is Hemp Legal In USA?
California, Washington and Colorado were the first to lead the charge toward legal reefer in USA, but even the number crunchers in those states are a little hazy on dollar and cent specifics.
Years ago, the Washington State Department of Finance released this rather puzzling statement: “The Washington State Office of Financial Management has released its report on the economic impact of Initiative 502 (the legal marijuana initiative that Washington voters passed last November). According to the report, the state could rake in nearly $2 billion in the first five years after the legalization of marijuana, or it could take in nothing at all.”
The statement is a classic in the great marijuana debate, which an array of surveys now show that more than two of three in the U.S. polled favor marijuana legalization.
Now that hemp has been legal nationwide, and marijuana is legal in some states, the tax benefit has been shown to be positive. And thus, more states have since followed suit.
Map From Wikipedia: In What USA States Is Marijuana Legal?
What Are The Implications Of Legalizing Marijuana (Or Not?)
SoHazy.com dug into the issue of marijuana legalization in USA to see if we could ferret out the economic sense of legalized marijuana, or at least understand why the answers are so elusive. This is what we found.
Tax revenue will go up, but by how much? According to research, about 6.9% of the population admit to using marijuana at the present time. (Pause for eye rolls from state universities coast to coast and other studies showing as much as 30% of the U.S. population).
If marijuana were to be legal tomorrow on a national basis, it is estimated that the usage number would climb to at least 18%.
So it stands to reason that, if marijuana were to be taxed at the same rate as cigarettes, state governments would realize almost $200 billion dollars in tax revenue a year, right? Wrong, and here’s why.
Pot’s price point would plummet. Hemp (cannabis sativa), from whence marijuana, is derived, is a hardy plant that will grow in much of the country. Warm summer days, medium-high relative humidity, add fertilizer, and you have a cash crop. Certainly, demand will be higher once legality is gained nationwide, but supply will outrun demand by a very wide margin.
Add in the fact that security and remote maintenance will no longer be necessary, and you have an easy-to-grow, easy-to maintain crop. The price of a high could go down by as much as 60-65%.
What Is The Economic Impact Of Marijuana Legalization?
So you’re telling me that the economic impact to my individual state will be negligible, right? Wrong, and here’s why.
Jail and prison populations would shrink dramatically. An estimated 71% of county jail and 58% of state prison populations are due to non-violent drug charges.
Extended incarceration for simple possession is on the decline but offenders are still ferried into and through jail on their way to court in many states.
Add to that longer stays behind bars for charges such as conspiracy to distribute and possession greater than what would be reasonable for personal use. The result is an overcrowded detention system that causes prisons to be a growth industry.
Shrink the inmate population and the $71,000 a year that it costs to house, feed, clothe, and guard a single offender declines.
So we know for sure that’s a net revenue bonanza for my state…right? Wrong, and here’s why.
Unemployment. Small time drug inmates cooling their heels in county jail isn’t a good thing. It does take them off the employment market, however. Recent jobless figures have been positive.
Empty half of the nation’s jail and prison population on to the job market and see what happens to those very same numbers.
I’m not sure what to make of all this. Neither is anyone else. What we know is that marijuana legalization is a coming tide and there are all sorts of propaganda to back up all the arguments.
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Marijuana has suddenly turned into a legal multi-million dollar business in the state. But the problem is Colorado marijuana stores are being rejected by banks.
Colorado Marijuana Stores Rejected By Banks
Banks don’t want Colorado marijuana stores businesses because of federal laws that prohibit banks, savings and loans and other lenders from dealing with them.
The marijuana stores are also prohibited from taking credit cards, checks and debit cards, which can limit sales. Having all that cash makes the marijuana shops a target for criminals.
Being cash only also makes it hard, but not impossible for the state of Colorado to tax marijuana-related enterprises.
The main rationale for legalizing recreational marijuana was to raise state taxes and to catch up with the times.
Legal marijuana sales are booming in Colorado. The state collected more than $6 million in taxes from the sale of weed in the first two months of going legal in 2014, according to the Colorado Department of Revenue.
Businesses are also expanding to meet the demand
The Medicine Man Denver pot shop is doubling in size because of all the new customers. Part of the reason business is so good is that people are traveling to Colorado from other states to buy pot legally.
Efforts are also underway to create a banking system for Colorado marijuana stores. Banks don’t like dealing with marijuana money because weed is illegal under federal law, but legal under Colorado law. State law trumped federal laws for decades until somehow the Feds started ignoring some state laws, and the U.S. Supreme Court intervened with a series of issues.
A Colorado state legislator proposed to set up a financial co-op within the marijuana industry, but fellow lawmakers quickly rejected the plan.
The proposal would have allowed dispensaries to create their own credit union. It cleared a House committee before being gutted in committee. “I don’t know whether this will take an act of Congress or an act of God at this point,” said Rep. Jonathan Singer, a co-sponsor of the bill.
Such cooperatives might not qualify for Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation insurance, and may also not be able to participate in electronic banking services.
What About The Federal Reserve?
The Federal Reserve would have to approve the cooperatives, and there is no guarantee the federal agency would do that. There’s a good chance the Federal Reserve and the Justice Department will reject a separate system.
The only other alternative marijuana retailers have for banking is some credit unions that provide them with certain services.
However, many credit unions won’t publicly admit whether they take marijuana money or not, probably to avoid damage to their reputations in the eyes of customers opposed to legalized pot.
The bizarre predicament that Colorado marijuana stores find themselves in shows some of the risks inherent for the new industry in the state that ironically is home to the “Mile High City.”
Starting a shop to sell weed might be easy, but finding a place to bank the money from it has turned out to be troublesome. Illegal pot dealers have run cash businesses for years, hiding their money from authorities, something that new pot shop owners just may have to deal with for years to come.
Keep Reading
]]>Already legal in many states and the District of Columbia for medical use, the spreading legalization of marijuana is raising questions for consumers who may be more likely to partake as the stigma of illegality fades away.
SoHazy.com asked some of these questions regarding legal weed.
Will My Health Insurance Cover Legal Weed?
Typically USA insurers are reluctant to cover it because of conflicting laws. In spite of the growing number of states approving pot for medical use, and some for recreation, the drug still is illegal federally.
But the biggest hurdle for insurers is that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration hasn’t approved it.
Major insurers generally don’t cover treatments that are not completely approved by the FDA, and that approval depends on safety, effectiveness and side effects.
From the FDA website:
[su_pullquote]The FDA has not approved marijuana as a safe and effective drug for any indication. The agency has, however, approved one specific drug product that contains the purified substance cannabidiol, one of more than 80 active chemicals in marijuana, for the treatment of seizures associated with Lennox-Gastaut syndrome or Dravet syndrome in patients 2 years of age and older.[/su_pullquote]
[su_pullquote]The FDA has also approved two drugs containing a synthetic version of a substance that is present in the marijuana plant and one other drug containing a synthetic substance that acts similarly to compounds from marijuana but is not present in marijuana.[/su_pullquote]
[su_pullquote]The FDA is aware that there is considerable interest in the use of marijuana to attempt to treat a number of medical conditions, including, for example, glaucoma, AIDS wasting syndrome, neuropathic pain, cancer, multiple sclerosis, chemotherapy-induced nausea, and certain seizure disorders.
[/su_pullquote]
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In Summary
Research can take years and millions of dollars.
While the FDA has approved treatments like Marinol that contain a synthetic version no one has gained approval for a treatment that uses the whole plant.
That will Change With Growing Acceptance, Right?
Maybe, but not as quickly as proponents are hoping.
Everything submitted to the FDA has hoops through which to jump before being granted precious approval.
Researchers will need to ascertain the likely side effects of long-term use before the FDA will even look at approving marijuana. Marijuana’s Schedule I classification under the Controlled Substances Act makes it difficult to conduct clinical studies.
The classification means the drug is considered to have a high potential for abuse. That means extra precautions are required in order to study it.
Researchers have to apply to the FDA to approve their study. Public Health Service, an arm of the Department of Health and Human Services, will also review it.
The Drug Enforcement Administration will issue a permit after researchers prove that they have a secure place to store the drug.
Researchers also have to explain the study plan to the National Institute on Drug Abuse, another agency within Health and Human Services.
All of these loose ends will need to be brought together before your insurance company will begin its own studies on coverage amounts and limits.
Anything Else I Should Know?
Yes, your homeowners and renters coverage won’t apply either.
Deborah McDonald, a 45-year-old woman with terminal brain cancer who lives Clarkston, WA filed a claim after 10 legally grown medical marijuana plants were stolen from her rented home last spring.
Her renter’s insurance company refused to pay. McDonald sued.
The judge granted judgment to Farmers Insurance, stating that because the marijuana plants didn’t have a “market value,” the company wasn’t on the hook for damages.
But Bob Dylan said it best. The times they are a’changin.
]]>The explosion of Canada based cannabis stocks on the market has been quick and frenzied, but there is still room for investors to cash in on refer madness.
Refer Madness: Tilray Overbought Compared to Competitors
American companies still face headwinds in the industry as Marijuana has maintained its Schedule-1 status as an illegal drug federally.
While it’s legal in many states, the inability for companies to use a federally backed bank has severely impacted scalability, and given Canadian companies like Tilray, Aurora Cannabis, and Canopy Growth Corp. a first-to-market advantage.
Tilray Inc
Pot stock Tilray, Inc. is definitely the current hype leader. Since the company’s IPO in July, Tilray’s stock price has skyrocketed by more than 500 percent and has commanded headlines over the past week.
While the Canada based company dropped by around 30 percent in Friday’s trading session, there is no denying that Wall Street and retail investors alike are flocking to pot stocks, and Tilray has somehow ended up center stage.
Tilray’s recent sell-off came as a result of a push by a Florida Republican to favor U.S.-based cannabis companies in upcoming clinical trials.
Investors should be aware that while the 30 percent drop improves the company’s entry point, Tilray is overbought according to most analysts, and there are a number of larger companies with more attractive price points.
If an investor is looking to cash in on the Tilray hype, setting a stop-loss on the stock or hedging their investment in some other way would be prudent.
Aurora Cannabis and Canopy Growth Corp.
One thing that is unclear in the recent pot stock rally is why Tilray has been soaring while larger companies like Aurora Cannabis and Canopy Growth Corp. have been lagging behind.
Canopy Growth was the first cannabis company to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
The surge in Tilray’s ticker price was likely a result of the company’s limited number of total shares, according to Canopy CEO Bruce Linton, who says Tilray grows about 5 percent the amount of pot as Canopy.
“I don’t think it was about the merits of that company, I think it got technically weird,” said Linton on CNBC.
According to Linton, the nature of the cannabis industry, especially after legalization is innovation as well.
“Cannabis is kind of this platform where you can create IP, you can run medical trials, you can file patents without any hesitation,” said Linton.
“I think there’s an opportunity to create things that don’t exist now so I think that when I come back each quarter there will be new things to talk about because we’ll have invented them.”
According to CNBC Mad Money host Jim Cramer, Canopy is the stock to buy.
]]>An Initial Public Offering, or IPO, is one of the most exciting things that can happen to a company. Last year, 2018, saw an incredible amount of companies announcing their debut on Wall Street.
In fact, 190 companies went public over the course of 2018, representing a 20 percent increase since 2017 and the most in a year since 2014, according to Renaissance Capital. Three new IPOs face market headwinds in the crashing market.
IPO proceeds popped 32 percent to $46.8 billion, and the median deal size for individual companies was $108 million. Moreover, 2018 saw a trend of debutant companies pricing in or above their indicated range.
Eighty-one percent of companies met that requirement, and these companies gained an average of 16 percent on their first day. Today, however, these companies are no longer in the spotlight, and are trading down an average of 2.3 percent.
Tilray
The rise of Tilray following its Initial Public offering was epic, and arguably for good reason.
While the fundamentals of the company in its current state likely don’t warrant it’s valuation at peak share prices, the hype surrounding the company is something to get excited about.
In a year when Canada officially legalized recreational marijuana, Tilray was the first cannabis company to IPO in the US.
Since it’s IPO, the share price of the company has skyrocketed, and experienced a great deal of fluctuation.
In September, when hype surrounding the upcoming legalization in Canada was at a “high” point, Tilray was trading at above $200 per share. Today, it’s at $70.46.
Dropbox
Compared with the other two companies on this list, Dropbox is trading below their IPO value at just over $20. The drop, which was largely in response to broad market headwinds, provides an excellent buying opportunity for investors to get in with a great company.
“We delivered another quarter of strong execution in Q3, driving healthy top line growth and expanding free cash flow margins,” said company Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Drew Houston.
“We’re shipping product features and updates our users love, based on a deep understanding of our customers and the tools they need to do their best work. Combined with our ecosystem of best-in-class partners, Dropbox is becoming an even more central part of our customers’ workflows.”
Moving forward, Dropbox should continue to thrive in a market that is shifting towards cloud based storage for business and personal use.
Upwork
Upwork, an older company and one of the largest names in the gig economy held its IPO in October. On its first day of trading, the company share price skyrocketed by more than 20 percent.
Following that day, the company, like many other stocks, has seen huge volatility, and price swings of around 25 percent.
As long as the economy and markets as a whole level off in 2019, Upwork should have some major upside.
In 2017, the company saw revenues rise by 23 percent, and the company leadership has issued guidance of 20 to 23 percent revenue growth for the current quarter as well.
]]>Early cannabis stocks investors have seen upsides of over 1,000 percent from a number of companies, and last month was a whirlwind price volatility for a number of pot stocks.
3 Cannabis Stocks To Seriously Consider
There is still plenty of short-term upside potential for a few pot stocks out there though, even after last month’s frenzy.
While Tilray Inc. has been one of the most talked about companies, and seen saw an outstanding amount of trading activity in September, investors should turn their gaze to other stocks that offer either greater market share or a lower entry point.
Canopy Growth Corporation
Canopy Growth Corporation is the first cannabis company to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange and is trading at around the $50 per share mark currently, and more upside potential for both short and long term investors.
The company is currently well positioned, anticipating a market share of around 40 percent following legalization.
Moreover, the company is owned in part by established alcoholic beverage manufacturer Constellation Brands, which owns Corona beer among others and has exclusive agreements with the company.
“Over the past year, we’ve come to better understand the cannabis market, the tremendous growth opportunity it presents, and Canopy’s market-leading capabilities in this space,” said Rob Sands, CEO of Constellation Brands. “We look forward to supporting Canopy as they extend their recognized global leadership position in the medical and recreational cannabis space.”
Having the backing of an established company provides a number of key benefits, including strategy, marketing, and distribution expertise dealing with a vice product.
Aurora Cannabis
Aurora recently disclosed that it would be listing on the New York Stock Exchange at some point this month. While the timing and symbol of the listing haven’t been disclosed, the move will prove to be a catalyst for the stock.
Part of the appeal for investors in Aurora Cannabis should be the company’s own holding in other marijuana ventures.
With over $700 million invested across the industry, Aurora will act in part as an overall cannabis fund for investors.
Additionally, the company is expecting production levels that are comparable with Canopy Growth’s and is reportedly in talks with Coca Cola to partner on a CBD soda for the United States market.
Cronos Group
Cronos Group is trading on the NASDAQ at just under $10; down from it’s all-time high of $13.75 reached last month.
While it doesn’t have the market share of Canopy growth or Aurora Cannabis, a sub-$10 entry point on a stock in an emerging market is hard to resist.
It’s likely that as time goes on Cronos will either be swallowed by the competition, left in the dust, or develop as a fringe company from their already existent vertical in the medical marijuana industry.
For investors looking for a short-term payout, the sub-$10 entry point may be an attractive investment.
]]>Ultimately, the rest of the country follows the Golden State, whether it wants to admit it or not.
So, CA Bill 420 was passed (along with help from California Proposition 47), which begged a question, “What that is new and/or different will result from legal weed?”
Edibles aren’t new, but there are a lot more of them!
Kiva Confections
Hemp Edible Chocolate Bar by Kiva
Kiva Confections is one outfit on the cutting edge. They make infused candy ranging from medicated mints to espresso beans drenched in chocolate and cannabis.
Kiva offers almost 20 varieties of cannabis edibles through their network of dispensaries in Arizona, Illinois, Nevada, and California.
Prices vary by product and strength, with weed chocolate bars range from $9-$20, while the mints run about $15.
Defonce
High-end edible weed chocolatier Defonce is another provider of medicated edibles. Their specialty is weedy chocolate bars. Defonce’s most popular products are Matcha Bars in mint or white chocolate flavors.
Matcha Bars have 91 mg of THC. You can break them into handlable 5 mg. servings. That’s the avenue for consumers wanting easy mini getaways instead of day-long highs.
Defonce boasts all-natural farming, and many folks who work there have an established background with other chocolate companies.
Other Cannabis Products We Love
New cannabis products aren’t all about snacking. There’s a wide world of other products available since sweeping legalization smoked its way across the country.
One industry leader is Herb Essntls (spelled just like that.) They sell cannabis-infused skin care products. The products contain the plant oils but without the THC.
What maintains that youthful glow?
Cannabis-oil rich lip balms and face creams. You can find Herb Essntls in shops all over the world.
Growing Hemp In US Soil Is Legal Again
After a hiatus of 80 years, hemp grows again on American soil. Its long nap was fueled by Big Cotton’s lobbyists fear-mongering to frightened parents.
Truth told you can’t get high sucking hemp because the THC count is too low. A change in federal policy acknowledges that new hemp products could help out our agricultural economy.
It might even offer a helping hand to the American farmer who sees Canadian farmers make a cool billion a year from hemp.
All this from the “Yes” button on Proposition 420?
Elections carry consequences. That’s true at both the national and the state levels. The late Tom Petty sang “Everybody Must Get Stoned.”
Through legal weed, the delivery vehicle is ready for boarding state by state by state.
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